The Beat goes On

Oh wait – there is more good news. 

We read about Speaker Pelosi suggesting that the candidate who is ahead in June should be accepted so that the party can unite.  Ha ! Madam Speaker has been threatened by Clinton loyalists for her obvious bias for the other guy. 

Now in response, the move0n.org folks (you remember – the ones with all the money) have responded with threats to withhold financial support for the Democrat Congressional Committees (the guys that finance congressional races every two years) if Hillary steals the nomination. 

It is gratifying to see the Democrats eat their young in a Presidential Election cycle.

But let’s keep our eye on the ball.  There are two major battlefronts that will occur here.  There has been polling to suggest that significant percentages of both Obama and Clinton camps could jump ship and vote Republican in November if they don’t get their way in the convention.  And it appears that from now until August we could see Democrat infighting on the news every day – all good for Senator McCain.

But the key is going to continue to be money.  and McCain is not raising enough of it.  This is where the rubber meets the road in this race.  McCain does not inspire the conservative base.  He will still get their votes (they have nowhere else to go) but he is not getting the money yet.  The only hope is that as the Democrat candidates self-destruct, a McCain victory will look more likely and the money will begin to flow.  Otherwise we have another Bob Dole – a strong candidate without financial support.

The other major battleground is the Congressional races – and the name of the game, again, is money.  A McCain who is not electrifying the base is not providing coat tails for House and Senate candidates to ride. Also McCain is tied to the war in Iraq – a difficult issue for the Senate and House candidates to support.  Congressional race fundraising is being dominated 3–1 by the Democrats ($60M, to $20M).  A Republican White House will not be able to be effective if the Democrats reach veto-proof majorities in House and/or Senate. 

So enjoy the soap opera running up to the Democrat convention – but remember there will be only 60 days of campaigning after the Republican convention and legislative and executive power is at stake. Much will depend on the news from Iraq, the state of the economy and the non-occurrence of terrorist attacks.