What has the World Learned

In capitals around the world, leaders and intel officers are assessing what they have learned from the recent incident in former Soviet Georgia.  The news is not good for Georgia or for the US.

Vladimir Putin is staking out his territory and re-asserting Russian dominance in the former Soviet Block and on the world stage.  He is also moving to lessen the influence of NATO and the US in the region.

In addition to enhanced oil revenues aiding the Russian economy with rising market prices at the present time, Putin knows Europe is not likely to oppose him in Georgia since Russia is a major supplier of oil to Europe.

Henry Meyer, writing for Bloomberg.com, has an excellent piece on what has happened and what will happen next.  I am excerpting a small part of the text here.  Be sure to read the full article on Bloomberg.com at <this link>.

My source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=avY4Ts56vW3Y&refer=latin_america

Russia May Focus on Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Georgia (Update2)

By Henry Meyer

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's first order of business likely will be to try to thwart Ukraine's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

``The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine of the damages of allying itself with NATO,'' said Geoffrey Smith at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.

The U.S. has long seen Georgia and Ukraine as counterweights to Russia's influence in the region. Opposition leaders in the two countries came to power after U.S.-backed popular protests in 2003 and 2004. Their ascension advanced an American strategy of expanding NATO to include both countries and securing energy routes from the Caspian Sea that bypass Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs through Georgia.

The future effectiveness of that policy is now in doubt, with Georgia's U.S.-educated president, Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, weakened by a five-day blitz that his American patrons were powerless to halt.

Medvedev, 42, and Putin, 56, say Russia began the offensive in response to a drive by Georgia to restore control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Now Russia has ousted Georgian forces from there and from Abkhazia, another separatist region, and destroyed much of the central government's military.

Less Confident

``Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future, and much less confident of its relationship with the United States,'' said U.S.-based geopolitical advisory group Stratfor in a research note…

Meyer’s article goes on to discuss economic pressure on Georgia as a result of perceived increase risk for foreign investment and the changing equation concerning NATO membership for Georgia or Ukraine.  Full text of the article available at Bloomberg.com at <this link>